Prediction markets for public opinion
Prediction markets require users to translate beliefs into data.
“We’re in a bull market” must be expressed as “Bitcoin will be worth over [$price] on [date] according to [exchange].”
This means they can only address beliefs that can be easily derived from data!
But many of our most important beliefs, cannot:
“Taxation is theft.”
“God exists.”
“Epstein didn’t kill himself.”
What data could possibly confirm or refute these? It’s not possible.
But using Ideamarket, you could create a prediction market based on what the public will believe 1 year from now. Throughout the year, both sides will be incentivized to produce the best possible evidence for their case, and to understand the arguments on both sides, and to judge honestly.
Ideamarket could make prediction markets exponentially more useful by enabling them to address subjective, un-resolvable, human questions.
Are you ready?
Later this week, we’re soft-launching The Decentralized Court of Public Opinion. We’re not going to announce it, we’re just going to do it. We did another soft launch a few weeks ago, and it went very well — but we came up with some awesome surprise upgrades so the current live version is mostly a demo.
Get ready:
User Profiles and Staking will be unaffected by the upgrade, so
Connect to https://ideamarket.io and click “My Profile” —> “Edit Profile” to set up your profile
Stake $IMO on yourself (no risk of loss) to increase your impact on the IMO rating for every post you rate. No need to visit SushiSwap first, just bring AETH and we’ll convert it to IMO when you confirm the Stake transaction.
Check out the site, and tell us what you like and don’t like!
Let’s start experimenting and iterating early, so that when Arbitrum Odyssey sends hundreds (thousands?) of users to Ideamarket in August, they’ll be blown away.
Cheers,
—Mike