Robin Hanson is renowned in the crypto industry for pioneering “prediction markets” as long ago as the 1980s. Hanson is the author of two books (The Elephant in the Brain, The Age of Em), writes a popular blog called Overcoming Bias, and is an Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University, and Research Associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University.
We box at length about Ideamarket’s theory and implementation:
1:00 — What inspired Robin’s “idea futures” in the 1980s?
6:30 — Decision markets for organizations
10:00 — Using prediction markets to overcome bias
14:30 — Honesty razors in today’s world
17:45 — “An autist in the C-Suite”
24:45 — Ideamarket discussion begins
(ROUND 1) 43:35 — Why Ideamarket results are not tied to any external truth
(ROUND 2) 56:35 — Informed traders vs Noise traders
(ROUND 3) 1:17:58 — The Color Wheel of Truth — is Ideamarket a Keynesian Beauty Contest? [Note: if you’re not a nerd and don’t know what this means — trust me, it’s interesting!]
Youtube (full video):